Electing Women Presidents

By Mosemarie Boyd

Commander-in-chief Credibility, The Widow Factor, American Voters, More Women Governors, Building Political Infrastructure.

To: Congressional Research Service From: Mosemarie Boyd Date: November 1, 2000 Re: Electing Women Presidents ====================================================
1. Commander-in-chief Credibility.
2. The Widow Factor.
3. American Voters.
4. More Women Governors, U.S. Senators and Presidential Cabinet Secretaries.
5. Building Political Infrastructure.

1. Commander-in-chief Credibility. Defined simply as convincing national defense and international affairs leadership experience, commander-in-chief credibility is the number one hurdle for women presidents. The traditionally limited role women have played in the development and implementation of U.S. military and foreign affairs policy has meant that women have had considerably less opportunity to build convincing commander-in-chief credibility. As more women assume high-profile leadership roles in these areas and serve in the U.S. military, American voters will attribute greater credibility in these areas to women. Obviously, U.S. Ambassador Jeane Kirkpatrick, Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor, Secretary of State Madeline Albright, Attorney General Janet Reno and others have moved all women forward in this regard. The appointment of women cabinet secretaries for the departments of defense and treasury, in particular, and the appointment of more women for executive positions, in general, would be powerful next steps in building commander-in-chief credibility for all women leaders.

2. The Widow Factor. When a woman follows her deceased husband into public office, either by assuming his most recent position or that which he would have won in the next election, this event is known as the widow factor. The widow factor has accounted for a noteworthy percentage of America's high-level women politicians as well as many of the world's women heads of state. Most importantly, the widow factor was almost solely responsible for opening the U.S. Senate to women members. The succession of power from the U.S. president to the vice president and then to various others as mandated in the U.S. Constitution renders the widow factor inoperative in relation to the U.S. presidency. This fact suggests that women will likely encounter considerable difficultly in winning the presidency.

3. American Voters. Undeniably, our nation's 224-year history suggests that American voters have been prejudiced against women in politics. All of America's 41 presidents and 45 vice presidents have been men. Women did not hold high-level elected office in this country until the 20th Century and, since then, they have only constituted one percent of state governors (15 of approximately 2,300), two percent of members of Congress (200 of approximately 11,590 ) and four percent of cabinet members (approximately 23 of approximately 570). And, women did not gain the right to vote in this country until 1920. However, the population of American voters has changed significantly in the last 80 years: the majority of voters are women, women voters have increasingly voted for women candidates, and women's votes seem to be steadily gaining influence in determining the outcome of presidential elections. These three factors suggest that American voters are moving closer to electing women presidents. In addition, polls suggest that American voters seem to be warming to the idea of women serving as president. According to Gallop, the number of Americans who said they would vote for a qualified woman president rose from 30 percent in 1945 to over 90 percent in 1999. Also, a 1999 report on women in politics, prepared by The Roper Group for Deloitte & Touche , found that about 60 percent of the people asked said they expect to see a woman elected president in their lifetime and that only a third said they believe a man is more qualified to be president than a woman, in general. However, 51 percent of those asked still said they believe a man would do a better job than a woman when it comes to leading the nation during a crisis, a view that reflects a continuing commander-in-chief credibility gap.

4. More Women.... The best way to build confidence in the minds of American voters about women's commander-in-chief credibility, in particular, and women's leadership abilities, in general, is to elect more women governors and U.S. Senators and to appoint more women presidential cabinet secretaries. These positions are the training grounds for the presidency where individuals develop the executive leadership and national defense and international affairs leadership experience necessary to win the presidency. In addition, each time an American voter, man or woman, encounters a high-level woman's leadership, either at the state executive level or at the national level, that voter will inherently gain greater confidence in women leaders. Thus, it seems likely that the election of women presidents and vice presidents will be directly linked to growing the number of women governors, U.S. Senators and presidential cabinet secretaries. We need more women in the political pipeline to the presidency. Women in these positions not only build confidence in the minds of American voters, but they also make more viable presidential candidates and serve as role models for would-be women presidents.

5. Building Political Infrastructure. The election results in states like California, Washington, Arizona and Maine, which have unusually high numbers of women office holders, would seem to suggest that electing women is easier after a political infrastructure has been established to support women candidates. In addition, the successes of women's political groups such as The Women's Campaign Fund, The National Women's Political Caucus, EMILY's List, and The Wish List, have demonstrated that women candidates are much more likely to win elections when a network is in place to back their campaigns with money, political acumen, and supporters. Thus, it seems very likely that electing women presidential and vice presidential candidates will require the establishment of a nationwide political infrastructure of individuals who support women presidential and vice presidential candidates. This political infrastructure will need to be dedicated to putting women presidential candidates on the state presidential primary ballots and to working towards the election of women candidates both in the primary and in the general elections.

Conclusion. It is widely believed that America will enjoy a woman vice president before a woman serves as president. This assumption is probably accurate, however, it requires that a presidential candidate or a sitting president be willing to ask the American people to trust his opinion that a particular woman is prepared to serve as president if necessary. While the political consequences of such an act will always depend on the immediate circumstances, one can imagine cases where such action might prove costly. Therefore, it is at least conceivable that America might have a woman president before we have a woman vice president if the country requires a woman to prove herself able to serve as president by winning the presidency.